Published online 20 January 2010 | Nature 463, 284-287 (2010) | doi:10.1038/463284a

Box: Enduring climate myths

From the article: 
The real holes in climate science

 Climate scientists grapple with real uncertainties, but those who doubt the reality of human-driven global warming usually ignore those issues and, instead, perpetuate a series of claims that do not hold up to scrutiny. What follows is a selection of myths about climate:

Climate models can't provide useful information about the real world.

Models can reproduce much of the climate variation over the past millennium, but projections for the future are subject to well-described uncertainties, both in the understanding of climate and in estimates of future economic development. They cannot therefore provide decision-makers with exact information of the rate of future changes, but they can offer useful general information and they unconditionally predict a warmer world.

Global warming stopped ten years ago.

Climate is not weather. The climate is the multi-decade average of the constantly changing state of the atmosphere. Natural variations can cause temperatures to rise and fall from year to year or decade to decade. Although global temperatures did not rise as quickly in the past decade as in previous ones, the most recent decade was the warmest on record.

Temperatures were higher in pre-industrial times.

The consensus of proxy-based reconstructions of pre-industrial climate is that the second half of the twentieth century was probably warmer than any other half-century in more than a millennium. Warmer periods did occur in the more distant past, albeit under different orbital and geological conditions. In any case, warm spells in the past do not disprove human influence on climate today. The cause of any particular climate change needs to be investigated separately.

Temperature records taken in the lower atmosphere indicate that the globe is not warming.

A decade ago, there seemed to be a discrepancy between surface and tropospheric temperatures. But this issue was resolved when long-standing calibration problems with satellite sensors were discovered. Satellite measurements show that the lower atmosphere is warming at a rate consistent with the predictions of climate models.

A few degrees of warming are not a big deal.

In the most recent ice age, the world was only a few degrees cooler on average than it is today. The current rate of warming is in all likelihood unique in the history of humankind. There may be no such thing as an 'optimum' temperature for the planet, but modern human societies are adapted to the weather patterns and sea levels of the past millennia. The rapidity of global warming substantially adds to the problem.

Measured increases in temperature reflect the growth of cities around weather stations rather than global warming.

Climate researchers have taken great care to correct for the impact of urbanization in temperature records by matching data from more-urban stations with data from rural ones. Moreover, some of the largest temperature anomalies on Earth occur in the least populated areas, including around the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. Measurements also show warming of the surface ocean and deeper marine layers.

Dear friend,

Today in New York was one of the most amazing experiences of my life.

As I stood in Times Square and watched images flood in from every corner of the world on the big screens, I finally saw what a climate movement looked like -- and it looked diverse and creative and beautiful.

If you haven't done so already, please send your action pictures to This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it so we can share your story--with the media, with world leaders, and with our entire network on our website's slideshow on the homepage of www..350.org

Here's how your photo-submission e-mail should look:
Subject: City, Country
Body: Photo description/caption--please include the location of the photo and include a photographer's credit if necessary.

If you have video from your action, please visit www.350.org/video-upload so we can incorporate it into a final video that sums up the story of this amazing day.

Please head to www.350.org and spend a few minutes watching the pictures. We need you to feel the strength of this movement, and to see how creative and committed this movement is, all across the planet.

It was so sweet to watch the day move around the globe, with thousands upon thousands of pictures appearing, sometimes a dozen a minute! There were photos of climbers high on the glaciers of Switzerland holding 350 banners, of bicycle parades from Copenhagen to San Francisco, of organizers in Papua New Guinea beating their church gong 350 times while churches in Barcelona rang their bells 350 times. Photos of activists protesting coal plants and celebrating wind farms, of students in 350 shirts repairing their flooded homes in Manila, and of thousands of people marching in the streets of Bogota and Kathmandu. Photos of people from different races and classes, religions and nationalities, coming together around a simple and powerful number to save our planet. Thousands took to the streets in Addis Ababa and Mexico City; we had huge parades in places like Togo and Seattle.

You were by far the biggest news story on Google, on CNN, on the front pages of newspapers around the planet.  And these pictures were seen around the world, in newspapers from Beijing to Boston, on TV stations from New Delhi to New York, and on blogs, social networks, and websites across the internet.

Together, we've shown the world that a global climate movement is possible and set a bold new agenda for the upcoming United Nations Climate Meetings in Copenhagen this December. The 350 target is the new bottom line for climate action and world leaders must now meet that target.

We thought we would be tired after many sleepless nights planning this day, but in fact we're more energized than ever. We're preparing to deliver the photos and messages from your events to every national delegation to the United Nations on Monday, and planning to hand the photos to high-level ministers at upcoming climate negotiations in Barcelona and Copenhagen. So if you haven't uploaded your best pictures from the event yet, please do so right away by sending us an e-mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it with your photos attached, with your City, Country as the subject and the body as the action description.

Thank you more than we can possibly say. We'll (of course) be asking you to do lots more in the weeks ahead -- but today, lean back, relax, look through pictures at 350.org, and savor your accomplishment. You were part of what many journalists called "the most widespread day of political action the world has ever seen."
Together with millions around the world, you made a real difference already -- get ready to make much more in the days, weeks and months to come.
 
With hope,

Bill McKibben and the whole 350.org Team
P.S. As always, we ask that you share this movement any way you can--just telling all your friends and family and colleagues (and Facebook friends and Twitter followers in just a couple of clicks) to visit www.350.org is a great way to start.  So many thanks for all that you do.